cranium

Task 3 - Decision-making under severe uncertainty

Project Summary

Contacts

Task 1
Uncertainty analysis in climate scenarios for built environment, transport and utilities

Task 2
Simulating system response to uncertain climate scenarios

Task 3
Decision-making under severe uncertainty

Documents and Publications

CRANIUM is being carried out in collaboration with stakeholder organisations with responsibility for climate-critical infrastructures: Scottish and Southern Energy, Arup, Halliburton KBR, Halcrow, Network Rail and The Environment Agency’s Centre for Risk and Forecasting. We have reviewed through the literature, workshops, interviews and case studies the decision contexts confronted by managers responsible for built environment, transport and utilities and are evaluating the suitability of a range of decision-making techniques in these contexts. One such approach is the Framework for decision-making for climate adaptation developed by UKCIP and the Environment Agency.

Framework for decision-making for climate adaptation (source: Willows, R. and Connell, R. (Eds.) (2003) Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decision-making. UKCIP Technical Report. UKCIP, Oxford).