cranium
Project Summary
Task 1
Uncertainty analysis in climate scenarios
for built environment, transport and utilities
Task 2
Simulating system
response to uncertain climate scenarios
Task 3
Decision-making under severe uncertainty
Climate change Risk Assessment:
New Impact and Uncertainty Methods
This project is funded by the EPSRC as part of the EPSRC/ UKCIP initiative on Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate (BKCC)
The CRANIUM project is developing new methodologies for analysing uncertainty and making robust risk-based decisions for infrastructure design and management in the face of climate change. We are developing and applying new methods for analysing uncertainties in key climate variables, for example rainfall and temperature. We are demonstrating how these climate uncertainties impact upon the performance of infrastructure systems, including railways and hydro-electric power. We are developing methods to enable this type of analysis to be done faster and more comprehensively. Finally we are investigating with stakeholders how, in the light of these insights, decision making about operation of, or investment in, infrastructure systems can be managed or modified to reflect potential climate change impacts and specifically the uncertainties surrounding them.