cranium
Documents and Publications
Task 1
Uncertainty analysis in climate scenarios for built environment,
transport and utilities
Task 2
Simulating system response to uncertain climate scenarios
Task 3
Decision-making under severe uncertainty
Research Proposal
research proposal
Progress reports
progress report 1 (Oct 2003)
progress report 2 (Mar 2004)
progress report 3 (Oct 2004)
Journal Publications
Goodess, C.M., Hall, J.W., Best, M., Betts, R., Cabantous, L., Jones,
P.D., Kilsby, C.G., Pearman, A. and Wallace, C. Climate scenarios and
decision making under uncertainty, Built Environment, 33(1) (2007) 10-30. abstract
Hall, J.W., Dawson, R.J., Manning, L.J., Walkden, M.J.A., Dickson, M.E.
and Sayers, P.B. Risk analysis for adaptive management of infrastructure
systems subject to natural hazards, Civil Engineering, 159 (Special Issue
2) (2006) 21-27.
Hamm, N.A.S., Hall, J.W. and Anderson, M.G. Variance based sensitivity analysis
of a slope hydrology and stability model. Computers and Geosciences, 32(6)
(2006) 803-817. abstract
Hall, J.W., Rubio, E. and Anderson, M.G. Random sets of probability measures
in slope hydrology and stability analysis. ZAMM: Journal of Applied Mathematics
and Mechanics, 84(10–11):(2004) 710-720. abstract
Rubio, E., Hall, J.W. and Anderson, M.G. Uncertainty analysis in a slope
hydrology and stability model using probabilistic and imprecise information,
Computers and Geotechnics, 31 (2004) 529-536. abstract
Hall, J.W. Probabilistic climate scenarios may misrepresent uncertainty
and lead to bad adaptation decisions, Hydrological Processes, in press.
Kilsby C.G., Jones P.D., Burton A., Ford A.C., Fowler H.J., Harpham C.,
James P., Smith A., Wilby R.L. (2007) A daily weather generator for use
in climate change studies. Environmental Modelling and Software, in press.
Cabantous, L. and Pearman, A. (2007) Climate change information in search
of decision-makers: Why do managers (not) consider climate change in their
long-term projects? Risk Analysis, in review.
Manning, L.J., Hall, J.W., Kilsby, C.G., Glendinning, S. and Anderson,
M.G. (2007) Spatial analysis of the reliability of transport networks
subject to rainfall-induced landslides. Hydrological Processes, in review. abstract
Hewitt, C.D., Goodess, C.M. and Betts, R.A. (2007) Probabilistic scenarios
of climate change for municipal engineering, Municipal Engineer, Proceedings
of the Institution of Civil Engineers, in review.
Wallace, C., Goodess,C.M., Jones, P.D. (2007) A methodology for incorporating
model uncertainty in the prediction of future climate extremes. International
Journal of Climatology, in preparation.
Hamm, N.A., Hall, J.W., Kennedy, M., Ho, H. and Anderson, M.G. (2007)
Statistical emulators for sensitivity analysis in environmental models,
Hydrological Sciences Journal, in preparation.
Manning, L.J., Hall, J.W., Kilsby, C.G., Fowler, H.F. (2007) Using probabilistic
climate change information from a multi-model ensemble for impact-sensitive
decision making: a water resources example, Climatic Change, in preparation.
Hine, D.J. and Hall, J.W. (2007) Part 1: Info-gap model uncertainty,
in preparation.
Hine, D.J. and Hall, J.W. (2007) Part 2: Info-gap hydrological uncertainty,
in preparation.
Hall, J.W. Sensitivity indices for imprecise probability distributions. Accepted for publication in Reliability Engineering and System Safety. abstract
Other Publications
Kilsby C.G., Moaven-Hashemi, A., O’Connell, P.E., Simulation of
rainfall extremes: fitting to observed annual maxima Presented at the
First International Conference on Flood Risk, Institute of Mathematics
and its Applications, University of Bath, UK, 7-8 September, 2004 abstract
Hine, D.J. and Hall, J.W. 2006a. Convex analysis of flood inundation model uncertainties and info-gap flood management decisions. In: J.K. Vrijling et al. (Editors), Stochastic Hydraulics ’05, Proc. 9th Int. Symp. On Stochastic Hydraulics. IAHR, Nijmegen, The Netherlands. abstract
Hine, D.J. and Hall, J.W. 2006b. Info-gap analysis of flood model calibration. In: P. Gourbesville, J. Cunge, V. Guinot and S.-Y. Liong (Editors), Hydroinformatics 2006: Proc. 7th Int. Conf. on Hydroinformatics. Research Publishing Services, Nice, pp. 1285-1293. abstract
Manning, L.J., Hall, J.W. and Kilsby, C.G. System reliability analysis
with spatial rainfall data: an example of rail network reliability subject
to rainfall-induced landslides. IFED 2006: Proc 2nd Int. Forum. on Engineering
Decision Making, Lake Louise, Canada, April 26-29, 2006. available on-line
at: http://www.ifed.ethz.ch/events/secondforum_paper.html
Hine, D. and Hall, J.W. Analysing the robustness of engineering decisions
to hydraulic model and hydrological uncertainties, in Harmonising the
Demands of Art and Nature in Hydraulics: Proc. 32nd Congress of IAHR,
Venice, 1-6 July 2007, in review.
Sayers, T, and Pearman, A. Decision making review
Walsh, C.L., Hall, J.W., Street, R.B., Blanksby, J., Cassar, M., Ekins,
P., Glendinning, S., Goodess, C., Handley, J., Noland, R. and Watson,
S.J. Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate: collaborative research
to understand the impacts of climate change on infrastructure, the built
environment and utilities, and to enable sustainable adaptation solutions.
Newcastle University, March 2007.