Modelling Clinical Outcomes

Observational data from clinical systems is frequently complex, involves multiple interactions and encapsulates multifarious behaviours. Modelling clinical outcomes is therefore a significant challenge. It requires a flexible approach and also novel methodologies able to reflect these complexities.

Our work in this area has been diverse and has involved a range of different clinical specialties, although the modelling principles applied have been consistent. Problems addressed have included; factors determining outcomes from hip and knee replacement, assessment of robotic prostatectomy and effective of sexual health services in primary care. Our work on respiratory infections has involved tackling a diverse range of problems necessitating a diverse range of approaches. For example it has included modelling population level spatio-temporal trends in childhood pneumonia as well as modelling individual level risk factors for adverse outcomes following AH1N1v infection and vaccination in pregnancy. This work has required us to build collaborations with a broad range of scientific and clinical organisations including the UK Health Protection Agency, NHS clinicians in obstetrics, paediatrics, respiratory medicine and infectious disease specialties, industry as well as a range of other academic institutions. This work has achieved international recognition.  


Current Projects


Cadaveric Modelling of the Appropriate Constrained Implant in Knee Replacement – Development of a Patient-Specific Surgical Tool

Ablative therapy for men with localised prostate cancer

Time trends in UK cases of Scarlet Fever

AH1N1v infection in pregnancy, risk factors and vaccine exposure.

The impact of a conjugate pneumococcal vaccine (Prevenar) on the epidemiology and aetiology of childhood pneumonia in the North East of England 

The national programme for enhanced pneumococcal surveillance of complicated pneumococcal pneumonia and empyema in UK children.

An investigation of the UK obesity epidemic: A multi-level systems approach 


Current Collaborations

Exploring the link between oral bacteria and hospital acquired pneumonia in hip fracture patients using a novel screening assay


Past Projects

Public health outcomes, costs and cost-effectiveness of GUM and primary care based STI services: How to maximise STI control and cost-effectiveness for a population (MSTIC)

A comparison of laporoscopic and robotic surgery in the treatment of prostate cancer 

The Effect of Total Knee Replacement on the Envelope of Laxity of the Knee


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