Cohort 6

Masoud Zeraati

Project Title:

Compounding extreme rainfall and heatwaves: how important are large scale dynamics in generating extreme floods?

Supervisory Team:

Professor Hayley Fowler (Principal – Newcastle University)

Dr Colin Manning (Newcastle University)

Dr Christopher White (The University of Strathclyde)

Bio:

My primary research focuses on understanding and characterizing flash droughts, compound extreme events, wildfires, and the broader impacts of climate change. Throughout my work, I have developed extensive expertise with diverse datasets, encompassing both reanalysis and remote sensing data. A central part of my research is devoted to using satellite data, which provides a unique and valuable perspective on the spatial and temporal dynamics of flash droughts. By analyzing satellite-based indicators, I seek to monitor the onset, intensity, and duration of flash drought events, understanding their unique characteristics and how they differ from more traditional droughts.

In exploring flash droughts, I am particularly interested in their role as compound extreme events, often intensifying the risk and severity of wildfires and other climate-driven hazards. My research aims to unravel the complex interactions between these extremes and the broader implications for ecosystems, agriculture, and communities that depend on stable weather patterns. As climate change continues to alter environmental conditions, my work seeks to anticipate how flash droughts and wildfire dynamics will shift, potentially impacting disaster preparedness, resource management, and climate resilience strategies. Through this research, I strive to contribute meaningful insights into our capacity to monitor, predict, and respond to these rapidly evolving climate threats.

Project overview:

Against a backdrop of increasing hydroclimatic variability with global warming, flash drought (sudden intense onset drought) conditions associated with heatwaves are projected to become more common in summer months alongside increases in short-duration intense rainfall events that commonly cause flash-flooding. There is a clear connection between heatwaves and termination by extreme short-duration rainfall in observations in the mid- to high-latitudes (Sauter et al. 2023; DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100563). Recent extreme events in the summers of 2021-2022-2023 have also shown clear connections between blocking and extreme rainfall from cut-off lows (e.g. Storm Daniel in 2023; Germany floods in 2021). Recent developments in convection-permitting climate models (e.g. Kendon et al. 2014; doi:10.1038/nclimate2258) enable the investigation of how these processes will change into the future – this quantification is highly important for understanding impacts of these connected extremes under future warming.

This project will investigate the changing frequencies and intensities of flash drought/heatwaves and their links to extreme rainfall using object-based datasets developed from reanalysis data to identify the ingredients for better forecasts of these compound extremes, then examine climate model simulations to establish how these events and their impacts on flash flooding etc, might change in a warming climate.

The project is collaborative with the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado and will use reanalysis data, high-resolution observations and the latest climate model projections.

Research Questions:

What are the key connections between atmospheric blocking, flash drought and extreme rainfall in the mid-latitudes? How will these processes change in a warming climate?

What are the ingredients/drivers of these events and can we better forecast them?

How is hydrological response to intense rainfall changed following flash droughts?

Education:

MSc Water Resource Management – Isfahan University of Technology, 2015 – 2018

BSc Civil Engineering –2011 - 2015

Skills:

Data Analysis and Processing, Time Series Analysis, Satellite Data Analysis, Statistical Modelling and Simulations, Visualization, Environmental and Climate Modelling, MATLAB programming, Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), The Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), ArcGIS.