Work Task Description:

Work Task 3 will operate on the list of current mitigation measures identified in WT2, for the key pollution sources identified in WT1, to develop emission projections considering baseline models and different time horizons. Emission projections will be based on (i) short-term measures such as carpooling, allowing odd and even number plate vehicles, increasing metro/mass transport trips, development of effective and efficient parking plan, enforcement of ban on agriculture residue burning etc. (ii) medium term measures such as relocation of major industries and power stations; tighter industrial pollution control; reduced use of biomass for cooking; stringent vehicles emission norms; creating low emission zones; fleet modernisation; awareness programme to encourage public transport systems, city cycling plan etc. and (iii) long term measures including coordinated land use and transport planning; development of green infrastructure; high level of generation and uptake of renewable energy; relocation of all medium and high polluting industries; high uptake of low/zero emission vehicles; and greater use of non-motorised transport.   

Each of the identified options will be evaluated for identified spatial scales. We will consider population changes across the medium and long-term time horizons (2030 and 2050) based on figures published by Census of India as well as assessing the sensitivity of the models to alternative assumptions (e.g. use of U.N. figures or else alternative projections produced by research institutes adjusting for assumptions about migration in particular). We would consider three types of changes relative to the baseline scenario: new measures, greater implementation of existing measures, and plausible technology innovation driven by market forces. New measures might include, for example, further development of the public transport system. Increased implementation might come from further public investment (e.g. tightening of the existing “Pollution Under Control” system or continued support for the LPG access campaigns), private compliance measures such as penalising open waste burning. New technologies for small-scale industrial processes will be informed through engagement and following modelling of impacts. The final selection of measures would be in consultation with stakeholder to assess the most likely and feasible measures (Work Task 4).

Current Activities:

None to date - more to follow.