We are a team of researchers from the UK and China.

We are interested in urban flood forecasting.

Pluvial flooding from intense rainfall has become a major problem in China in recent years, and the city authorities have recognized the need to enhance their flood forecasting, warning and response systems to reduce the risks to lives and properties.

Flood forecasts are inherently uncertain, and so uncertainty should be explicitly quantified and used within appropriate decision-making procedures that can minimize costs, economic losses, loss of life and social disruption.

Yet, many flood forecasting systems employ a deterministic approach in which forecast errors are not acknowledged, leading to sub-optimal decisions and consequent costs and losses that could be reduced.

We replicate the components of an end-to-end real-time flood forecasting, warning, and decision-making system, characterize how uncertainty propagates through the human decisionmaking chain, and demonstrate the outcomes in economic and social terms based on different levels of uncertainty.

Please Explore our Project