Observations
Stephen Blenkinsop, Hayley Fowler, Chris Ferro, David Stephenson
WP1 is using a range of gridded daily and hourly gauge rainfall data for the UK (and Europe) along with radar data to explore the spatial characteristics of rainfall. We are seeking to identify extreme rainfall events on a seasonal and regional basis and by examining spatial rainfall extremes over regions in the gridded datasets.
These will be used to identify predictors of extreme rainfall for different regions, seasons and spatial size of events. A selection of predictors will be examined (e.g. synoptic circulation: potentially Lamb Weather Types, continuous circulation indices, NAO; and also ERA-40 data: sea-level pressure, sea surface temperature, upper atmosphere pressure, atmospheric humidity and stability). Appropriate methods will be used to relate the parameters of extreme-value rainfall distributions to linear or non-linear combinations of predictors at different spatial and temporal resolutions as well as for different locations and seasons.
We are also using the same datasets and predictors to identify trends and periodicities in daily and hourly extreme rainfall datasets for different seasons, regions and spatial scales. Trends and periodicities in predictors identified previously will then be examined using the same methods to provide process-explanations for observed changes to extreme rainfall.
