Future Projections
WP4: Projecting future change in extreme precipitation and the implications for flood risk management
Hayley Fowler, Steven Chan, Stephen Blenkinsop, Elizabeth Kendon, Richard Jones
Building on WP3 the work package will analyse existing RCM integrations to provide projections of future change in extreme rainfall and to identify the mechanisms (predictors) responsible. Further, the new 1.5km resolution RCM will be run for a future period, complementing the control simulation performed in WP3. This will provide new estimates of extreme rainfall change at convection-permitting scales and will also provide understanding of potential differences between changes to winter/summer convective/frontal/orographic events.
