ERN seminar - Johannes Lohse (Leuphana University)

Pollution Perceptions (with Matt Cole, Robert Elliot and Ceren Ozgen)

Perceptions of air pollution should play a crucial role in shaping individual avoidance behaviors, yet their accuracy and formation remain underexplored. This paper examines how individuals perceive NO2 pollution and evaluates the impact of these perceptions on short-term avoidance behavior and the willingness to pay for protection. Using a survey experiment with 3,000 Greater London residents, we provide randomized information about local NO2 concentrations and their potential health consequences. This experiment delivers three main results. First, baseline beliefs are strongly polarized and virtually uncorrelated with actual pollution measured at the closest monitoring station. Revealing how often local pollution levels exceed WHO limits in a typical biweekly period of the previous year improves the absolute prediction accuracy by 1.6 days in low pollution areas where residents tend to over-predict the severity of pollution; roughly one‑half of this improved accuracy survives after 2/4 weeks. Treated respondents display some small behavioral adaptations related to outdoor recreation and exercise. Providing both information on pollution levels and health consequences raise the willingness to pay for certified air filtration masks by £2.90 and reduces willingness to pay in below-median pollution areas by £2.52.

Last modified: Thu, 01 Oct 2026 21:57:13 BST