Work package 1
Work package leader
ObjectivesThe main objectives of this workpackage are to:
- determine the range of pre-existing monetary values of prevented fatalities, serious injuries prevented and other health gains currently used in public policy evaluations in the 10 participating countries;
- undertake initial modelling of country-specific willingness-to-pay-based (WTP-based) values of a quality adjusted life year (QALY) on the basis of existing values of fatalities prevented currently used in public policy evaluation;
- conduct sensitivity analyses of the mortality-based estimates of the monetary value of a QALY from work package 2; and
- model country-specific willingness-to-pay-based values of a QALY on the basis of existing values of serious injuries prevented (or implicit values from adoption decisions in various fields) currently used in public policy evaluation.
Task 1.1 - Survey of pre-existing monetary values of prevented fatalities, serious injuries and other health gains
Partners, along with their research assistants, will survey health technology and pharmaceutical assessment agencies, Health Ministries and other Government Ministries to determine the range of pre-existing monetary values of prevented fatalities, serious injuries prevented and other health gains currently used in public policy evaluations. Details will also be gathered as to the nature of such values; in particular the methods used to estimate the values, the year when such values were last updated and if any plans for updating such values are imminent.
Task 1.2 - Modelling of monetary values of QALYs based on values of prevented fatalities (and other main monetary standards for health gains)
In addition to the monetary values made available from Task 1.1, partners and their assistants will collect data from transport and health ministries and other public agencies on: ages of road fatalities (as prevention of road accidents are the most common basis of estimates of the values of prevented fatalities and serious injuries); and actuarial data on survival prospects if such fatalities had not occurred. Country-specific data on age-specific quality of life will also be btained as well as the appropriate public sector discount rate for each country. These data will be fed into two modelling packages which will have been developed at Newcastle University and agreed by the partners.
Task 1.3 Refinement of initial values based on prevented fatalities and main standards
Sensitivity analyses will be based on agreements amongst the project team (and from recommendations of policy makers attending the third meeting of the group) as to reasonable ranges of important variables (such as life expectancy) underlying the modelled monetary value of a QALY. These ranges will be fed to the team based at Newcastle for re-running of the model for each country.
Task 1.4 Modelling of values based on serious injuries
Modelling based on serious injuries prevented will, again, require collection of important publicly-available data by the partner and assistant in each country, such data covering: quality of life estimates for injuries incurred, the periods over which such injuries persist, willingness to pay to avert (the risk of) such injuries and probabilities of occurrence of such injuries. Once available, such data would be fed back to the University of Newcastle for simulation through the model that will have been constructed there and agreed amongst partners.