Xiaodong Ming

‌‌‌Xiaodong Ming - x.ming1@newcastle.ac.uk

PhD Title:

Integrated Assessment Framework for Quantifying Multi-Hazard Risk in Coastal Cities

 

PhD Project Details:

It is widely recognised that human settlements are generally exposed to more than one natural hazards.  Multi-hazard risk assessments that quantify the potential loss due to multiple hazards can provide meaningful reference for regional land-use planning, disaster prevention and emergency management.

 

Flood is one of the most destructive disasters that may be caused by rainstorm, costal tide, dam failures, snow and ice melt, etc.  In many situations, flood is treated as multi-hazard disaster because of its various initiators.  Risk analysis of multi-hazard flood has to consider more than one variables and their statistical dependence.  Statistical techniques, hydraulic models, vulnerability curves are required to estimate the disaster risk of multi-hazard flood.  The aim of this PhD project is to construct an integrated framework to quantify the risk of multiple flood hazards in London and Shanghai, which are both coastal cities and suffering multiple sources of flood including heavy rain, river flood and coastal flood.

 

The objectives are as follows:

  • Frequency analysis of multi-source flood: joint probability analysis

  • Future hazard analysis: predict the return period of hazards under the impact of future climate change

  • Scenario calculation of Application of hydraulic model: calculate water depth using 2D SWEs with input water sources in a set of return period scenarios

  • Vulnerability analysis: vulnerability curves of infrastructure system

  • Flood risk analysis: generate risk curves (damage-probability/return period curves); sensitivity analysis of each variables; flood risk maps of London and shanghai

  • Framework of multi-source flood risk assessment: quantitative framework of risk analysis and comparison between London and Shanghai

 

Reference

Ming, X., Xu, W., Li, Y., Du, J., Liu, B., & Shi, P. (2015) ‘Quantitative Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment with Vulnerability Surface and Hazard Joint Return Period’, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 29(1), 35-44.

(Image 1 - Joint cumulative distribution of rainfall and river flow based on the observed data from two gauges in London)

(Image 2 - Result of water depth simulation based on 2D SWEs in a case grid of London)

 

Supervisors:

Professor Qiuhua Liang

Professor Richard Dawson

Hiro Yamazaki

 

Sponsor:

Sir James Knott Sustainability Studentship

Institute of Sustainability