Motasem Darwish

‌Motasem Darwish - m.darwish@ncl.ac.uk

 

PhD Title:

Developing a Statistical Model to Examine Extreme Hourly UK Precipitation and its Future Changes

 

PhD Project Details:

The impacts of extreme precipitation events through flash flooding appear to have increased significantly in recent decades.  The consequences lead to significant impacts on our infrastructure.  Yet, the effect of climate change on short duration precipitation events is not well understood, and needs comprehensive investigation.

 

A great deal of the literature has reported that the UK is most vulnerable to flooding hazards.  Thus, this project tries to investigate the extreme precipitation events that cause flash flooding and have a significant effect on urban areas.  This takes advantage of the large number and long record of precipitation datasets, and other climatological variables records in UK, which allow for different spatial and temporal analyses.

 

In this PhD, UK hourly precipitation data from 1992-2014 will be analysed for each station.  Trends and observation behaviour will be analysed in order to generate homogenous precipitation regions for hourly precipitation extremes and compare them with the current regions that were produced using daily precipitation data.  Further, regional frequency analysis using the L- Moments approach will be performed to yield more robust and accurate representation of regional scale return periods for short duration events.  In addition, the study will investigate the relation with different climatological variables that might have significant effects on extreme precipitation, e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), atmospheric pressure and temperature.  Finally, a statistical model will be built to predict extreme hourly precipitation events and validate different climatological models, which would identify the likely future changes in such events, and develop design guidelines for vulnerable areas.

 

Supervisors:

Professor Hayley Fowler

Dr Stephen Blenkinsop

Dr Mari Tye

 

Related Outputs:

Darwish, M., Brevis, W. & Nino, Y. ‘Analysis of the Flow Structure in a Side Open-Channel Cavity of Aspect Ratio 1’.  35th IAHR World Congress 2013, Chengdu, China. International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research (IAHR), 5141-5148.