Golnaz Jahanshahi

‌Golnaz Jahanshahi - g.jahanshahi@newcastle.ac.uk

 

PhD Title:

Uncertainties in the Long Term Management of Water Resources

 

PhD Project Details:

Frequency of future drought risk cannot be predicted with certainty; it is a function of long term drivers of change, which include climate, environmental loadings, demography and land use.  The release of the UKCP09 probabilistic projections has enabled an improved understanding of uncertainties in climate models, providing a timely opportunity to develop a more rigorous approach to dealing with other uncertainties.  This provides the opportunity to understand the sensitivity of investment decisions to these uncertainties and identify adaptation options that are as robust as possible.

 

The  aim  of  this  PhD research  is  to  develop  a  new  risk-based  approach  to  decision  making  and planning of water resources infrastructure under uncertainty.  This is to be undertaken in the context of the Thames catchment, a region which is sensitive to water availability.  To achieve this aim, the key uncertainties in long term water resources management, many of which result from earth system processes, in the Thames catchment will be identified and quantified.  The implications of these uncertainties are explored using a coupled system of models that includes a weather generator, simulations of catchment hydrology, demand for water and the water resource system.  Using these integrated models, both the likelihood and consequences of water scarcity are assessed, and by applying sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, water resources management options that are robust to uncertainties are identified.

 

Supervisors:

Professor Richard Dawson

Dr Claire Walsh

Professor Chris Kilsby

 

Related Outputs:

Jahanshahi, G., Dawson, R., Walsh, C., Kilsby, C. G., ‘Assessing Climate Change and Socio-Economic Uncertainties in Long Term Management of Water Resources’, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, April 2015 (Poster presentation)

 

Jahanshahi, G., Dawson, R., Walsh, C., Kilsby, C. G., ‘Uncertainties in the Long Term Management of Water Resources’, Postgraduate Research Conference, Newcastle University, July 2014 (Presentation)

 

Jahanshahi, G., Dawson, R., Manning, L., Walsh, C., Kilsby, C. G., ‘Assessing Climate Change and Socio-Economic Uncertainties in Long Term Management of Water Resources’, Fourth Annual Tyndall PhD Conference, Manchester, April 2014 (Presentation)

 

Jahanshahi, G., Dawson, R., Manning, L., Walsh, C., Kilsby, C. G., ‘Uncertainties in the Long Term Management of Water Resources’, Postgraduate Research Conference, Newcastle University, July 2013 (Poster - Winner of Best Poster Award)

 

Jahanshahi, G., Dawson, R., Manning, L., Walsh, C., Kilsby, C. G., ‘Uncertainties in the Long Term Management of Water Resources’, Peter Wolf Early Career Hydrologists' Event, London, March 2013 (Poster)